Research

My research develops a probabilistic approach to political economy. I combine classical political economy and heterodox macroeconomics with statistical mechanics, information theory, Bayesian inference, and Maximum Entropy methods. I am interested in how heterogeneous agents, institutional constraints, and decentralized interactions generate stable statistical patterns in variables such as prices, profits, wages, income, wealth, and output.

Rather than treating equilibrium as a single deterministic state, I study economic regularities as distributions produced by ongoing fluctuations, interactions, and adaptation. This approach informs my work on value theory and the division of labor, capitalist competition and profitability, economic growth and distribution, and economic planning.

More broadly, my research seeks to explain how institutional and structural features shape the relationship between individual actions and aggregate economic outcomes. My goal is to develop statistically grounded models that preserve the historical and social content of political economy while providing rigorous tools for theoretical and empirical analysis.

Research areas

Probabilistic Political Economy

Statistical equilibrium, Maximum Entropy Economics, Bayesian inference, information theory, and models of complex economic systems.

Capitalist Competition and Profitability

The distribution and dynamics of profit rates, classical competition, firm heterogeneity, accumulation, and financialization.

Heterodox Macroeconomics and Economic Planning

Economic growth, distribution, effective demand, structural dynamics, and probabilistic approaches to economic coordination and planning.

Classical Political Economy and the History of Economic Thought

Value theory, the division of labor, Marxian economics, Sraffian economics, and the reconstruction of classical economic arguments using modern mathematical methods.

Publications

Papers

Scharfenaker, E., Theodosio, B., and Foley, D. 2026. “A Statistical Equilibrium Approach to Adam Smith’s Labor Theory of Value.” Review of Radical Political Economics 58 (1): 59–76, March 2026. Article Link.

Theodosio, B. 2023. “Accumulation, Profit Rate, and Financialization in Brazil, 2000–2016.” Revista de Economia 44 (special issue): 463–500, September 12, 2023. Article Link.

Theodosio, B. 2019. “Trabalho e dinheiro: a teoria monetária marxista e o dinheiro de crédito.” Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Política, no. 51, January 11, 2019. Article Link.

Encyclopedia

Theodosio, B. Forthcoming. “Entropy and Information.” In Elgar Encyclopedia of Institutional and Evolutionary Economics, edited by William Waller and Wolfram Elsner. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Working Papers

Theodosio, B., and Weber, J. 2023. “Back to the Classics: R-Evolution Towards Statistical Equilibria.” ifso Working Paper Series, no. 28, Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen. Working Paper Link.

Manuscripts in Progress

Theodosio, B., and Carter, S. 2026. “From Eclecticism to Pluralism: An Institutional History of the Department of Economics and the Heterodox Economics Center at The University of Tulsa.” Manuscript in progress.

Theodosio, B. 2026. “Statistical Equilibrium in Capitalist Competition: QRSE Evidence from U.S. Firm Profitability Distributions.” Manuscript in progress.

Theodosio, B. 2026. “Statistical Prices of Production: Sraffa, Entropy, and the Distribution of Profit Rates.” Manuscript in progress.

Theodosio, B. 2026. “Statistical Economic Planning: Coordination under Uncertainty and Constraints.” Manuscript in progress.

Theodosio, B. 2026. “Planning as Inference: A Democratic Probabilistic Model of Economic Coordination.” Manuscript in progress.

Theodosio, B. 2026. “Capitalism Still? Profit-Rate Distributions, Market Power, Technofeudalism, and the Tails of Competition.” Manuscript in progress.

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